K-pop Fansign Odds Simulator

Enter applicant pool, winner count, and draw method. We Monte-Carlo 10,000 iterations to estimate your odds — and reverse-solve how many albums you need for a 50% chance. Artist-agnostic — no names or branding

My albums (copies)

How many copies you bought to enter. Typically 1–300.

Estimated applicants (people)

Estimate from past rounds or sales volume. Pick "popularity" below if unknown.

Winner slots (people)

Per round. Typical: 50–200 in-person, 100–500 video call.

Avg albums per applicant

Avg excluding me. Popularity tier auto-multiplies.

Draw method

Group popularity tier

Auto-multiplies competitor album baseline 0.7×–2.0×.

Sale rounds this comeback

Independent draws (e.g. per-seller or per-date). Assumes you apply the same number of albums per round.

Spending notice This tool is a decision aid. It does not endorse over-purchasing, dumping sealed albums, ticket reselling, or automated apply-bots. Keep spending within your means; consider donating sealed copies you do not need.

See the Guide for how machine vs hand draws actually work, and what the popularity tiers mean. Guide · FAQ